The House Doesn’t Always Win: How I’ve Been Beating Casinos Since 2016
Over the years, I discovered that with the right mathematical approach, it's possible to find real edges — even where most people don't expect them.
Today, I'm sharing the story of how math, patience, and careful analysis helped me build a real system for beating online casinos — legally and consistently.
This post covers how it all started, how casino bonuses really work (and why most people misunderstand them), and how finding hidden +EV opportunities completely changed my approach to gambling.
I'm also working on a book about the gambling industry and advantage play — early chapters will appear here for readers who want a deeper look inside.
Let's dive in!
Introduction
If someone told you they systematically win at casinos, what would you think? Probably that they're lying, cheating, or maybe even a little crazy. Nine years ago, I would have thought the same.
Today, I'm sharing how a mathematical approach and careful promotion analysis helped me earn a seven-figure sum from online casinos. This isn't about luck or some "secret system." It's about uncovering hidden mathematical advantages where most people don't even think to look.
Where It All Started
My journey began with poker. I was an average player with professional aspirations. I won often enough to stay motivated, but not enough to quit my day job. Still, I never passed up deposit bonuses — an easy way to boost profitability.
Everything changed in December 2015, when the best poker bonuses shifted over to the casino side. Out of curiosity, I decided to dig into their real value.
Enter the Monte Carlo Method
While scouring the internet for "casino hacks" and strategies, I quickly realized most of it was junk. Nearly every site promising "winning systems" or "roulette secrets" was just trying to get you to deposit. No one shared real strategies.
A poker friend of mine, a former programmer, took a different approach.
"I don't trust opinions," he said, opening his laptop. "I run simulations. Millions of them."
He was using the Monte Carlo method to simulate bonus wagering outcomes in European roulette.
In short, the Monte Carlo method solves problems by running countless random trials. Instead of solving complex equations, the computer simulates millions of games and averages the results.
His screen showed something like this:
Bonus: 100% up to $100
Wagering Requirement: 30x (on bonus + deposit)
Bet Size: $14
Simulations: 10,000,000
Expected Value (EV): +$78,14
Chance of Clearing Bonus Profitably: 1 in 25
At first, I didn't grasp the full potential. $78 didn't seem life-changing, and I was skeptical. Plus, there were only a handful of bonuses available each week.
Everything changed in January 2016 when a massive promotion launched — offering up to five bigger, more valuable bonuses every day.
$60,000 in Seven Months
My first serious experience was surprisingly straightforward. The bonuses were incredibly generous. While a deposit was required, only the bonus was at risk — your own money remained safe.
These companies were burning through marketing budgets like crazy. They only noticed me after I'd netted over $60,000 in seven months, cashing in on hundreds of bonuses. After that, the bans began — endless document checks, notary visits, and payment delays.
But that was only the beginning of my real battle with casinos. Casinos hate losing money. Luckily, there's no shortage of casinos out there.
Bonus Analysis: Seeing What Others Miss
Over time, we found positive expected value (EV) in all sorts of promotions — even those with deposit requirements and high wagering.
In 2020, for example, a major brand offered a 25% bonus on every deposit, with a 35x wagering requirement on both the bonus and deposit. Online forums dismissed it as a "bad" bonus. Our simulations told a different story.
There was no maximum bet limit. The bigger your bets, the higher your EV.
I only stopped once they completely canceled all bonuses. You can see how the results evolved in the graph below.
Bonus Play Highlights:
Total Deposits: $49,185
Expected Winnings: $28,040
Actual Winnings: $39,175
Maximum Drawdown: $11,575
Biggest Single Win: $9,353
It's important to understand that mathematics evens out over distance. Therefore, you need many bonuses to realize your advantage. This time I won more than expected, but that's not always the case.
The Common Bonus Myth
Many players — and even some industry insiders — think like this:
“Okay, $100 bonus + $100 deposit, 35x wagering = $7,000 in bets. Even assuming a 98% RTP, the player would lose 2%, or $140, over $7,000. The player loses $140 and the bonus was only worth $100. Bad deal.”
I've seen this logic repeated countless times. But it's wrong.
Even with a $5 max bet on a slot (volatility 11), you'd have a +$65 expected value. Even with a $1 max bet, you'd still have +$44 expected value.
The catch? You only complete wagering when you hit rare, large wins. If you lose early, your balance depletes before you can complete the required wagering. Simplistic "wagering loss" formulas completely ignore this dynamic.
Advantage Play
Eventually, we realized bonuses were just the tip of the iceberg. Real opportunities also hide in cashbacks, tournaments, and progressive jackpots. I'll cover these in future posts.
Casinos taught me some hard lessons.
When I was losing, they showered me with gifts, expensive liquor (I always joked to managers that I "drink cognac and push buttons"), and VIP invitations.
When I started winning? Account closures, delayed payments, endless KYC demands, and even fund confiscations.
Over the years, they confiscated over $1,000,000 from me. One common excuse? "We have identified suspicions of malicious activity." Apparently, winning too much now qualifies as "malicious activity."
Some of that money was recovered; a larger chunk remains tied up. Most issues happened at casinos licensed offshore (Malta, Curacao), where regulators aren't always helpful. Lawsuits are ongoing. Never a dull moment.
Eventually, this turned into a full-fledged business. We tracked progressive jackpots across the USA (New Jersey, Pennsylvania), the UK, Sweden, Italy, Portugal, Estonia — all regulated markets where such issues are rare.
Quick note: In the iGaming industry, a “white license” means that the casino is fully legal and tightly regulated by its home country.
What’s Next
About a year in, I quit poker completely to focus on casinos. Eventually, I left my job too.
Today, I'm writing a book about the gambling industry, advantage play, and everything I've learned from nine years of beating the house. I even launched my own online casino — partly to understand how the industry works from the inside.
Early chapters and case studies will appear here soon.
Final Thoughts
Gambling without a real advantage will lead to losses over time.
Play smart, stay responsible, and never bet more than you’re willing to lose.
And whatever you do — don’t engage in “malicious activity” — trust me, casinos really hate that. After all, casinos hate winners.